All we're doing is shifting chairs on the deck of the Titanic

Un articol scary de pe Market Watch. Sursa, si argumentele ce isi gasesc suport intr-o realitate pe care uneori incercam sa o refuzam, ma cam indispun. As fi preferat sa cred ca "e doar in capul meu", si eventual a unora mai putin seriosi. Cateva citate:



The debt mountain that brought down some of the world's biggest banks and dragged the international financial system to the brink of disaster has simply shifted to governments. Now it's threatening countries around the globe -- and, if left unchecked, could rip the very fabric of Europe's economic system and wreck economic recoveries in the U.S., China and Latin America.

"The sovereign-debt crisis spun out of control in the past week, and we see no easy way to resolve it,"

if a major country comes close to default, it could trigger a financial meltdown that would eclipse the panic that followed the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008.
The move "symbolizes how credit risk has been transformed from corporate to sovereign risk, as the solution to the financial and economic crisis was government intervention,"

"Public finances in the majority of advanced industrial countries are in a worse state today than at any time since the industrial revolution, except for wartime episodes and their immediate aftermath,"

Even though the current epicenter of the crisis is focused on the euro zone, the overall fiscal position of the single currency area is stronger than that of the U.S., the U.K. and Japan, he noted.

Nota: asta stiam si eu, si tocmai de aceea ma mir de recenta isterie anti-euro.

Fannie and Freddie's liabilities at the end of last year's third quarter were almost $1.8 trillion, according to Buiter. This equals 13% of U.S. GDP and should be included in measurements of the country's general government debt

"We are still halfway through the world's worst financial crisis ever," Bank of England Governor Mervyn King warned.

"If they (Japan) borrow where Germany borrows at a bit over 3%, they are out of business."

One tell-tale sign of potential inflation is that the U.S. Treasury Department is trying to extend the average maturity of its debt from about 48 months to roughly 84 months, Brynjolfsson said.

"That makes me a little uncomfortable and suspicious," he added.

"That will be accompanied by inflation in the price of non-renewable assets like gold, other precious metals and industrial commodities," he said. "People start to hold on to things that they think will retain value."


Articolul integral aici: The second debt storm

All free men, wherever they may live, are citizens of Berlin

Astazi se implinesc 20 de ani de la caderea Zidului Berlinului:





Textul discursului

V-uri si L-uri

Deja ma irita cand aflu ca altfel respectabilul Mugur Isarescu insista cu visul lui despre V-uri. Daca ditamai guvernatorul BNR isi permite sa arunce astfel de vorbe in care nu mai crede nici macar Basescu, imi permit si eu sa arunc in blogosfera niste desene in care cred sincer.


Evolutia Dow Jones

Cu rosu trendul principal, cu albastru trendurile secundare, iar cu verde punctul in care cred ca se afla acum:

Si evolutia PIB-ului in Romania. Noi nu avem trenduri secundare pentru ca guvernul nostru sta cu mana in gura, asa ca economia evolueaza "liber"...in gol:

Uraa, criza s-a terminat! Suntem inapoi in 1998!

Two major U.S. benchmarks just concurrently reached headline milestones.

Specifically, the Nasdaq has cleared the 2,000 mark, while at the same time, the S&P 500 has edged atop the 1,000 mark.

That's the good news.

The bad news is that both levels were initially surpassed in 1998, more than 11 years ago.

So those buy-and-hold investors that rode out the Internet bubble, and the ensuing crash, followed by the housing bubble, and this year's crash, have been rewarded with their original 1998 investment back, along with a few gray hairs.

De aici.

PS: astazi am scris si un articol suparat La Coltu' Strazii.

Personal job outsourcing

De la Onion, via blogul lui khris, Noul Vis American:


More American Workers Outsourcing Own Jobs Overseas

Istoria se transmite in direct...dar nu pe canalul la care ne uitam noi

Astazi este o zi istorica. Evident, in Romania acest lucru o sa fie constientizat cu ceva intarziere.


Dollar on track for worst week in 24 years


SYDNEY (Reuters) - The dollar headed for its biggest weekly fall in 24 years on Friday as investors feared the Federal Reserve's plans to buy longer-term government debt would erode the world's reserve currency.

"This is a historic moment, the start of debasement of the world's reserve currency, and it feels to many participants that in the grand sweep of history we are witnessing the end of 'Rome' on the Potomac," said Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist a RBS Greenwich Capital.

Analysts said the Fed's radical decision to buy $300 billion of longer-term government debt and vastly expand its balance sheet beyond the current $2 trillion meant more and more of the U.S. currency would be created, straining demand.

La noi ca la....toata lumea

Vazute acum cateva minute pe Reuters, poate v-ati plictisit de buget, crime si violuri, familia Becali, Basescu si Bahmu:


Teroristii, uite teroristii:



Israel planned to target Iranian nuclear scientists with letter bombs and poisoned packages and had set off explosions in Iran.

Sigur, astia sunt teroristii d-aia buni, care lupta pentru libertate si democratie. Sunt de-ai nostri.

GM inca se mai zbate. E posibil ca maine dimineata sa aflam exact data si ora inmormantarii. Locul se cunoaste: Washington

Since GM hired Citigroup to seek buyers for its iconic Hummer brand in June, no buyer has emerged. Moreover, several expected buyers have publicly denied interest.
...
GM Vice Chairman Bob Lutz said last month that Saab had never made money for the automaker in the nearly two decades it has owned the brand. "Frankly, they've been on GM life support," he said. "It's just an unending string of losses."

Hummer anybody, Saab anybody? Ieftinache, la super-reducere, cash sa fie!

PS: nenea Bob asta ar fi bun langa Basescu. E foarte suparat pe Saab dar cine l-a impedicat sa rezolve problema pana acum, de cand ia salariul ala baban si se plimba cu private-jetul? Agenturilii, cu siguranta.

Povestioara de Craciun

Am plecat ieri din Bucuresti la ai mei. Cu trenul. A durat fix o ora si 30 minute din momentul in care am iesit pe usa apartamentului pana am intrat in curte la Campina. Cu masina, cu ceva noroc, in aceeasi perioada de timp as fi fost aproape de a ma avanta cu curaj pe centura Ploiestiului.

Mi-am luat bilet la clasa 1 in accelerat, in speranta de a evita papornitze. In schimb am nimerit peste 3 americani vorbaretzi. Domnul si doamna Edwards, pensionari cu parul alb sunt directori servicii umanitare si totodata mormoni din Salt Lake City, aflati intr-o misiune de 18 luni in Romania. Cu ei era si fiica lor, studenta in NYC, venita sa petreaca vacanta cu parintii. Mergeau intr-o excursie-fulger de o zi, in care isi propusesera sa viziteze Pelesul, Poiana Brasov si Branul.

In pauzele dintre vizitele cersetorilor-colindatori care apareau la intervale de maxim 5 minute, uneori dupa numai 1, ne-am conversat despre subiecte incepand de la influenta franceza in Romania pana la oil sands din Canada, si numai vreo 3 minute despre religie, timp in care n-au facut nici o tentativa de convertire, asa cum poate s-ar gandi vreunii.
Oamenii fusesera sa curete satele afectate de inundatii din Siret. Pe cat de uimiti erau ei de casele fara fundatie si cu pereti de pamant, ce se "topisera" (expresia lor) la venirea apelor, la fel de uimit sunt eu de fiecare data cand intalnesc asemenea oameni ce isi lasa confortul lor de acasa, la o varsta la care ar trebui sa profite de ceea ce au agonisit o viata, pentru a merge la capatul pamantului ca sa daruiasca unor amarati, de multe ori neincrezatori si chiar in cautarea unor metode de a ii fraieri pe americanii cei bogati. Bine ca nu s-au prins cerseto-colindatorii ca aveau de-a face cu straini ca altfel cred ca ar fi trebui sa apelez la serviciile controlorului de tren pentru a ii scoate din compartiment...

A fost o conversatie care m-a binedispus. Se pare ca a avut acelasi efect si asupra lor. Am schimbat carti de vizita, ne-am urat Craciun fericit, ei si-au cerut scuze in numele poporului american pentru criza economica, eu mi-am cerut scuze pentru cersetorii agresivi, iar la final eu le-am spus ca tara asta are nevoie de oameni ca ei, care sa arate ca exista caritate adevarata, fara scopuri ascunse, iar ei mi-au spus ca dupa ce m-au cunoscut cred ca "it's still hope for this country", ceea ce evident a facut sa se umfle self-esteemul in mine. :D


Cand le-am spus povestea alor mei, ceea ce au retinut in primul rand a fost ca americanii tocmai aduceau un transport de scaune cu rotile pentru invalizi, si ar prinde bine unul si pentru bunica-mea si in perspectiva si pentru ei ca nu se stie.... Dincolo de detaliul ca imi pot permite sa cumpar unul sau chiar si 10 astfel de scaune daca e nevoie (dar ei nu vor din banii mei, ca eu trebuie sa ii strang pentru catastrofele viitoare) ideea de a cere ceva unor oameni pe care i-am cunoscut de o jumatate de ora este inaccesibila creierasului meu.


In rest, in Ajun am mai facut 2 ture de cumparatori, am mancat zdravan si am povestit mult. Astazi, din primele 17 ore ale zilei am dormit 12. Am inceput sa citesc "Arhipelagul Gulag", maica-mea ca de obicei a cumparat deja toate cartile la care eu doar ma gandesc.


Sa aveti un Craciun Fericit, alaturi de toti cei ce va sunt dragi!

Rugaciune pentru bani

Americanii par a fi aproape de a gasi in sfarsit drumul cel drept spre iesirea din criza. Modelul este fara indoiala cea mai dinamica economie din Uniunea Europeana, cea romaneasca, ce a reusit sa ii lase pe chinezi cu ochii in soare printr-o crestere economica exploziva bazata in principal pe o recolta record. Se pare ca agenturilii straine care vor sa ne fure banii au reusit in cele din urma sa descopere secretul strategic ce a stat la baza reusitei romanesti: rugaciunile pentru venirea ploii, rostite de soboare de preoti insotiti de icoane facatoare de minuni, largi mase de votanti PSD si traditionalul securist/comunist convertit la capitalismul crestin-ortodox, a carui cucernicie este evidentiata prin marimea crucilor pe care si le face, numarul de pupaturi cu babele si pomenile in bani si faina cu care milosteste credinciosii extaziati:

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE4B700K20081208

DETROIT (Reuters) - With sport-utility vehicles at the altar and auto workers in the pews, one of Detroit's largest churches on Sunday offered up prayers for Congress to bail out the struggling auto industry.

Local car dealerships donated three hybrid SUVs to be displayed during the service, one from each of the Big Three. A Ford Escape, Chevy Tahoe from GM and a Chrysler Aspen were parked just in front of the choir and behind the pulpit.

Ce n-au inteles spionii este ca Dumnezeu trimite apa chioara din ceruri la credinciosi, dar nu si bani care sa cada peste SUV-uri, ca banul e ochiul dracului!

RTFB! (Read The Fucking Bible)

Citibank se scufunda - trece criza la un alt nivel? (update)

Vineri:

Ca cei trei mari producatori auto din USA nu au declarat inca falimentul doar pentru ca spera la ajutor de stat, ca acest ajutor pare a fi mai aproape de respingere decat de aprobare, ca FED-ul se pregateste sa reduca dobanda de refinantare la 0 (ZERO), s-ar putea sa nu mai fie noutati pentru nimeni.

In schimb asta s-ar putea sa fie:

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE4AJ45G20081121

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc lost more than one-quarter of its market value on growing worries over whether it has enough capital to withstand billions of dollars of potential losses and despite new support from its largest individual investor.

The second-largest U.S. bank by assets is looking at options now, including a sale of parts of the company or a merger with another firm, after its stock fell 50 percent this week, a person familiar with the matter said on Thursday.


Desi, daca ar fi sa pariez, de data aceasta as paria precum domnul Dick Bove:

www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE4AK0KO20081121



Sambata:

www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4AJ45G20081122?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc has begun talks with the U.S. government as its plummeting share price raises doubts about the bank's ability to survive, a person familiar with the matter said.

"Citigroup needs a deep-pocketed investor that is ready, willing, and able to step up in the next few days, and the only one who comes to mind is the government," adding that at least $50 billion may be necessary.

Citigroup's market value fell to $20.5 billion on Friday. That's less than the $25 billion taxpayer-funded injection that Citigroup just received from the federal government, and a fraction of the $75 billion of capital that Citigroup has raised since the credit crisis began last year.
The bank's market value topped $270 billion in late 2006.

Now I know what the people at Lehman Brothers felt like," a bank staffer said, referring to the investment bank that filed for bankruptcy protection on September 15.


Cu tot pesimismul meu referitor la SUA si la criza in general, parca nu-mi vine sa cred ca Citi ar putea da faliment. Nu mi-am imaginat niciodata ca s-ar putea ajunge atat de departe.

De aceea cred si eu ca:

"It's fear and panic at this point," said Gerard Cassidy, a banking analyst at RBC Capital Markets in Portland, Maine.

Dar macar nu sunt singurul ale carui asteptari pesimiste au fost surclasate de realitate:

www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4AL2C720081122

In another sober assessment, billionaire investor George Soros said the U.S. economy needed an additional $300 billion to $600 billion in support funds to help it withstand a financial crisis which he said "has exceeded my most daring expectations.

Si in nici un caz nu se poate spune ca Soros a fost vreun optimist sau vreun sustinator al politicilor administratiei Bush...


Update, luni:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081124/ap_on_bi_ge/citigroup

WASHINGTON – The government unveiled a bold plan Sunday to rescue Citigroup, injecting a fresh $20 billion into the troubled firm as well as guaranteeing hundreds of billions of dollars in risky assets.
The $20 billion cash injection by the Treasury Department will come from the $700 billion financial bailout package. The capital infusion follows an earlier one — of $25 billion — in Citigroup in which the government also received an ownership stake.
As part of the plan, Treasury and the FDIC will guarantee against the "possibility of unusually large losses" on up to $306 billion of risky loans and securities backed by commercial and residential mortgages.
Under the loss-sharing arrangement, Citigroup Inc. will assume the first $29 billion in losses on the risky pool of assets. Beyond that amount, the government would absorb 90 percent of the remaining losses, and Citigroup 10 percent. Money from the $700 billion bailout and funds from the FDIC would cover the government's portion of potential losses. The Federal Reserve would finance the remaining assets with a loan to Citigroup.
In exchange for the guarantees, the government will get $7 billion in preferred shares of Citigroup.
As a condition of the rescue, Citigroup is barred from paying quarterly dividends to shareholders of more than 1 cent a share for three years unless the company obtains consent from the three federal agencies.

Cu aceasta disponibilitate a guvernelor de a injecta sume absolut colosale, cred ca notiunea de faliment isi pierde sensul. Sigur, Citigroup n-a dat faliment. Nici A.I.G. Dar ce fel de bussines e asta in care statul iti da bani, tu iti platesti cheltuielile curente si in rest faci doar write-offuri?

Pe de alta parte, atat timp cat Citi nu poate plati dividende, cum o sa atraga capitalul de care are nevoie?

In afara de faptul ca Citigroup continua sa opereze si astazi, nu prea vad nimic bun in aceasta actiune a administratiei americane...