sâmbătă, 22 noiembrie 2008

Citibank se scufunda - trece criza la un alt nivel? (update)


Ca cei trei mari producatori auto din USA nu au declarat inca falimentul doar pentru ca spera la ajutor de stat, ca acest ajutor pare a fi mai aproape de respingere decat de aprobare, ca FED-ul se pregateste sa reduca dobanda de refinantare la 0 (ZERO), s-ar putea sa nu mai fie noutati pentru nimeni.

In schimb asta s-ar putea sa fie:


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc lost more than one-quarter of its market value on growing worries over whether it has enough capital to withstand billions of dollars of potential losses and despite new support from its largest individual investor.

The second-largest U.S. bank by assets is looking at options now, including a sale of parts of the company or a merger with another firm, after its stock fell 50 percent this week, a person familiar with the matter said on Thursday.

Desi, daca ar fi sa pariez, de data aceasta as paria precum domnul Dick Bove:




NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc has begun talks with the U.S. government as its plummeting share price raises doubts about the bank's ability to survive, a person familiar with the matter said.

"Citigroup needs a deep-pocketed investor that is ready, willing, and able to step up in the next few days, and the only one who comes to mind is the government," adding that at least $50 billion may be necessary.

Citigroup's market value fell to $20.5 billion on Friday. That's less than the $25 billion taxpayer-funded injection that Citigroup just received from the federal government, and a fraction of the $75 billion of capital that Citigroup has raised since the credit crisis began last year.
The bank's market value topped $270 billion in late 2006.

Now I know what the people at Lehman Brothers felt like," a bank staffer said, referring to the investment bank that filed for bankruptcy protection on September 15.

Cu tot pesimismul meu referitor la SUA si la criza in general, parca nu-mi vine sa cred ca Citi ar putea da faliment. Nu mi-am imaginat niciodata ca s-ar putea ajunge atat de departe.

De aceea cred si eu ca:

"It's fear and panic at this point," said Gerard Cassidy, a banking analyst at RBC Capital Markets in Portland, Maine.

Dar macar nu sunt singurul ale carui asteptari pesimiste au fost surclasate de realitate:


In another sober assessment, billionaire investor George Soros said the U.S. economy needed an additional $300 billion to $600 billion in support funds to help it withstand a financial crisis which he said "has exceeded my most daring expectations.

Si in nici un caz nu se poate spune ca Soros a fost vreun optimist sau vreun sustinator al politicilor administratiei Bush...

Update, luni:


WASHINGTON – The government unveiled a bold plan Sunday to rescue Citigroup, injecting a fresh $20 billion into the troubled firm as well as guaranteeing hundreds of billions of dollars in risky assets.
The $20 billion cash injection by the Treasury Department will come from the $700 billion financial bailout package. The capital infusion follows an earlier one — of $25 billion — in Citigroup in which the government also received an ownership stake.
As part of the plan, Treasury and the FDIC will guarantee against the "possibility of unusually large losses" on up to $306 billion of risky loans and securities backed by commercial and residential mortgages.
Under the loss-sharing arrangement, Citigroup Inc. will assume the first $29 billion in losses on the risky pool of assets. Beyond that amount, the government would absorb 90 percent of the remaining losses, and Citigroup 10 percent. Money from the $700 billion bailout and funds from the FDIC would cover the government's portion of potential losses. The Federal Reserve would finance the remaining assets with a loan to Citigroup.
In exchange for the guarantees, the government will get $7 billion in preferred shares of Citigroup.
As a condition of the rescue, Citigroup is barred from paying quarterly dividends to shareholders of more than 1 cent a share for three years unless the company obtains consent from the three federal agencies.

Cu aceasta disponibilitate a guvernelor de a injecta sume absolut colosale, cred ca notiunea de faliment isi pierde sensul. Sigur, Citigroup n-a dat faliment. Nici A.I.G. Dar ce fel de bussines e asta in care statul iti da bani, tu iti platesti cheltuielile curente si in rest faci doar write-offuri?

Pe de alta parte, atat timp cat Citi nu poate plati dividende, cum o sa atraga capitalul de care are nevoie?

In afara de faptul ca Citigroup continua sa opereze si astazi, nu prea vad nimic bun in aceasta actiune a administratiei americane...

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